Bush-Era Actions Have Boosted Coronavirus Response Efforts The 2001 anthrax attacks revealed serious weaknesses in America’s preparedness for withstanding biological or chemical weapons of mass destruction. This sparked several initiatives to provide surge capabilities in the event of a regional or national medical disaster. by Brian Finch and Lora Ries

The coronavirus pandemic is straining most federal and state emergency resources. But the strain—and the government’s response—would have been far worse, if legislation enacted in the previous decade had not laid a solid foundation of expanded homeland security and emergency medical preparedness. 

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was created in response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks—but that wasn’t the only impetus. Another significant motivating factor was the 2001 anthrax attacks.

The latter attacks revealed serious weaknesses in America’s preparedness for withstanding biological or chemical weapons of mass destruction (WMD). This sparked several initiatives to provide surge capabilities in the event of a regional or national medical disaster. 

In creating the DHS, the Homeland Security Act of 2002 transferred a number of biodefense capabilities from other cabinet agencies into the new department. For example, it folded a number of biological, chemical, nuclear, and other WMD prevention and response operations, such as the Defense Department’s National Bio-Weapons Defense Analysis Center into the Science & Technology Directorate at DHS.

It also transferred the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Pharmaceutical Stockpile (now the Strategic National Stockpile) into the new department. Clearly, responding to major medical events, including biological threats, has always been a core component of the DHS mission.

Once the new department was up and running, Congress gave it legal authorities to supercharge pandemic and WMD preparedness efforts. The first was the Project BioShield Act, signed into law in July 2004, as part of a broader strategy to defend America against the WMD threat.

Project BioShield was created to accelerate the research, development, purchase, and availability of effective medical countermeasures against a variety of threats, initially focusing on WMD agents. Launched with an initial fund of nearly $6 billion, Project BioShield has become the central facility through which critical medical countermeasures, such as vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics, are developed and purchased. More than fifty drugs funded through BioShield have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.  

The BioShield law also created the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), giving the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary expanded authority to deploy resources from the Strategic National Stockpile and to clear countermeasures and other medical resources so that they can be used, even if they have not fully cleared FDA testing protocols.  

One of the first steps taken in response to the current pandemic was to declare a public health emergency, which allows the secretary to utilize the EUA. The administration issued that declaration in late January, well before pandemic concerns dominated the news.

Another key measure, the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act (PREP Act), was signed into law in 2005. It authorized more than $3 billion for pandemic preparedness and gave the HHS Secretary limited authority to provide immunity from liability for claims arising from the use of pandemic countermeasures. These protections applied not just to the manufacturers of the countermeasures but also to those who distributed and administered them.  

Given the voracious appetite of the plaintiffs’ bar to launch lawsuits based on just those types of claims for any alleged medical injury, the PREP Act was a key step in ensuring the rapid development and use of cutting edge countermeasures in the event of a medical emergency. 

In December 2006, President George Bush signed the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA), a law that dramatically reorganized and expanded HHS’s authority with respect to natural and manmade medical catastrophes. Among other things, it established the post of Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response to oversee matters related to WMD and pandemic preparedness and response.

PAHPA also brought the Strategic National Stockpile back into HHS, where it was originally launched, as a way to centralize medical disaster response capabilities and better sync the Stockpile’s role as the cache for countermeasures developed through BioShield.

One other highly relevant program initiated by the Bush administration was the National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility. A plant and animal disease research facility, it gives the United States a capability that had been sorely lacking. Previously, this kind of work depended solely on the dated laboratory system located on New York’s Plum Island.

Of course, the federal government can’t fight an epidemic on its own. Most of the in-the-trenches work must be done by the private sector and state and local governments. And once America has the disease under control, it will take an equally concerted effort to get the U.S. economy back on track. Already, some of the nation’s top experts have formed the National Coronavirus Recovery Commission to plot the best way forward to restore economic health as well as public health. 

What can America do to improve the response to the next pandemic? When the United States reaches the other side of this coronavirus curve, it will need to focus on improving its supply chains, remove its dependence on China for critical resources, and increase stockpiles of personal protective equipment and vaccines. In the meantime, its citizens can be thankful for past organizational preparation and new legal authorities that have been invaluable in fighting this pandemic.

If Kim Jong-un Died, It Would Make the U.S.-China Rivalry Worse Neither great power will like the uncertainty of regime transition. by Zhiqun Zhu

This is part of a symposium asking what happens if Kim Jong-un died. 

Though Kim Jong-un reemerged after disappearing from public view for nearly three weeks, speculations about his health and succession persist. Will North Korea have a smooth leadership transition? How will it affect regional security at a critical moment? What will China and the United States do? These will be some of the important questions in every observer’s mind if Kim were to die suddenly.

Undoubtedly, Kim’s demise will inject a new dose of uncertainty to a region already rife with conflicts and will exacerbate U.S.-China strategic rivalry in East Asia.

A joint U.S.-China effort to ensure the stability of the North Korean regime and East Asia, in general, is desirable but unlikely given the current distrust between the two powers. The United States and China will compete for currying favor with the new leadership and shaping the development of North Korea. Both countries will take advantage to enhance their strategic interests in the region. Denuclearization and a strong foothold in East Asia are Washington’s main interests, while stability and gradual reduction of U.S. influence in the region are Beijing’s. 

U.S.-China relations were already in terrible shape in recent years. They are further strained as the two powers are engaged in a diplomatic tussle over the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea remain high. Cross-strait relations continue to deteriorate as Tsai Ing-wen begins her second term. China has become more assertive in the South China Sea, allegedly sinking a Vietnamese fishing trawler and creating two new administrative districts in controversial areas. Differences over their North Korea policies will add fuel to the fire in U.S.-China strategic rivalry.

In the short run, the historical bond between China and North Korea will remain strong when new leadership takes charge in Pyongyang. China has been—and will continue to be—the vital source of economic aid and the most important diplomatic ally for North Korea.

If Kim died suddenly, China will surely secure its borders with North Korea immediately to avert a massive influx of fleeing North Koreans. If power struggle is taking place in Pyongyang and nobody appears to be in control, China is likely to directly intervene, perhaps by sending a group of senior advisors, to help establish a pro-Beijing regime.

Internal uprising remains a low possibility in North Korea due to tight control of information and a lack of mobilization for collective action. Denuclearization will become more challenging since the new leadership will need to demonstrate their mettle to their rivals and the North Korean people.

Among all possible candidates, Kim Yo-jong is most likely to emerge as her brother’s immediate successor. The male-dominated Confucian tradition in Korean political culture seems to be a key obstacle to her assuming the top position. But this is not insurmountable if she has cultivated a strong alliance with party elders and top military brass. After all, Ms. Park Geun-hye served as the President of South Korea not long ago, albeit through elections.

Kim Yo-jong will almost certainly disappoint those who think she will be a softer dictator or will be more accommodating on the nuclear issue. This is clear from her condemnation of South Korea as a “frightened dog barking” after Seoul protested against a live-fire military exercise by the North in early March. 

Yes, We Should Worry if Kim Jong-un Died (But History Demand We Take a Longer View) "The Reagan/Bush-era victory in the Cold War produced prodigious victories. However, it would be wise to acknowledge that the scope of those victories did not extend to North Korea and China." by William Jeynes

 This is part of a symposium asking what happens if Kim Jong-un died.

What would happen if Kim Jong-un died suddenly?

The answer one arrives at depends largely on whether one focuses on the obvious level of analysis, the short-term, or what is actually the longer-term strategy of North Korea.  Given that North Korean leaders have specialized in creating distractions, this long term strategy is largely missed by the West.

When historians of the future one day assess what is generally considered the end of the Cold War, they will determine that the United States and its allies won a historic victory in Europe, but also made a consequential miscalculation regarding the state of that conflict in East Asia. Many people in the United States both hoped and concluded that as West Germany and East Germany reunited, so would South Korea and North Korea. Moreover, they thought that as Russia had retracted its claws and seemed willing to join in more civilized practices than before, so would China act similarly. Future historians will one day regard such conclusions as one of the grandest American miscalculations in history. In reality, the Cold War concluded in Europe, but unbeknownst to most Americans, it continued in China and North Korea. The events of the last nine years or so have finally opened the eyes of many Americans to this reality.

In the short-term, should Kim Jong-un die suddenly two scenarios emerge as the most likely. First, it might be that Kim Jong-un’s thirty-two-year-old sister, Kim Yo-jong, might become the Supreme Leader of North Korea. It was Kim Yo-jong who recently praised a letter that President Trump sent to Kim Jong-un. Nevertheless, given the patriarchal nature of North Korea, it is likely that if the sister were to become North Korea’s leader, she would likely be a figurehead with a set of leading males collectively running the country. Another possible Supreme Leader is Kim Pyong Il, who is Kim Jong-un’s uncle. At age 65 he has the advantage of being male and being the last known surviving son of the founder of North Korea, Kim Il Sung. Were Kim Pyong Il to come to power, because he is largely geographically and personally disconnected from the current leader (he has lived in Eastern Europe for some time), he might resort to the typical temper-filled demonstrations of power normally associated with a new North Korean Supreme Leader. However, if Kim Yo-jong and her co-rulers were to ascend to power her close ties to Kim Jong-un might make some degree of less eventful continuity more likely.

Nevertheless, it would unwise for the observer to merely focus on this immediately evident level of analysis rather than on what is actually the long term strategy of North Korea. Yes, North Korea has a history of acting in a seemingly irrational and volatile way. Because of this proclivity, the relationship must be treated with extreme care. Even so, it is a salient and necessary part of properly interpreting North Korean behavior to understand that the actions of its Supreme Leader, whoever that might be, are designed to reach specific Communist-oriented goals. Many of its most terrorizing actions are meant:  1. as distractions and 2. to frighten adversaries into an attitude of compromise.

North Korea respects President Trump and wants to avoid war, while he is at the helm in the U.S. Instead, North Korea is content with biding its time, while a clear “generation gap” in South Korea clearly works in North Korea’s favor. As the largely pro-American older South Korean generation passes, younger people in South Korea, often affected by a left-wing ideology reminiscent of the 1960s in America, lurch to the left at an unnerving rate. Many older South Koreans suspect North Korean subterfuge in South Korean universities, the media, and the government in order to create young adults in South Korea that embrace China and socialism. If North Korea can produce distractions for the United States to steer America’s eyes from these more important developments, it will make any long-term goals it has much more attainable. It will also put the United States at greater risk. The Reagan/Bush-era victory in the Cold War produced prodigious victories. However, it would be wise to acknowledge that the scope of those victories did not extend to North Korea and China.