What Happenned to the 5G Protests? There have not, as of yet, been reports of attacks on 5G towers in the United States. by Stephen Silver

In recent months, due in part to a nonsensical conspiracy theory that 5G technology has something to do with the cause or spread of the coronavirus pandemic, there have been numerous reports of attacks on 5G towers and other infrastructure. The attacks have mostly been concentrated in the U.K. and parts of Europe, although there were some reports of them taking place in Canada more recently.

There have not, as of yet, been reports of attacks on 5G towers in the United States.

This past weekend, however, various entities inside and outside of government warned some protests or even attacks related to 5G could take place in the U.S. However, it doesn't appear that any actually did.

An organization called Stop 5G International, on their website, declared June 6 as the latest "International Stop 5G Global Protest Day." The organization held a webinar, and also offered a list of "suggested actions," which included raising awareness, hanging signs, signing and delivering the organization's appeal, and even a "playlist of counter-5G songs and inspiration."

The site does not in any way suggest any type of violence or property destruction, and while it listed several in-person events around the world to take place Saturday, the only ones scheduled in the U.S. were a noon rally on the front steps of a building in Los Angeles, and a " a small group of folks (social distancing)" in the forests in Oregon.

However, heading into the weekend, an advisory was issued by the Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA.)

The advisory, as reported by the website Cyberscoop, states that “while the U.S. has not seen similar levels of attacks against 5G infrastructure linked to the pandemic, the tactics used in Western Europe [have] begun to migrate to the U.S."

The memo also stated that, in the recent past, attackers in Tennessee had "physically disabled electrical breakers at more than a dozen cell towers," and that white supremacists had "used the encrypted messaging platform Telegram to encourage people to outfit drones with explosives and fly them toward tower sites."

In a separate note Friday, NATE: The Communications Infrastructure Contractors Association, issued a member advisory about the planned weekend protests.

"NATE as an organization has heard through official channels that there are 5G Global Protest Day activities being planned throughout the country this Saturday, June 6, 2020," the alert said. "NATE member companies set themselves apart by embodying the characteristics of work ethic, professionalism, safety and quality on a daily basis. NATE reminds our member companies and their employees to remain safe, exercise vigilance and report any unusual or suspicious activities that they witness when traveling to and working at tower sites this weekend."

One company working on the infrastructure, Ericsson, even suspended field work for the weekend in the U.S. and Canada, per Fierce Wireless.

Perhaps it was because activist attention was focused on the continuing protests around the country following the killing of George Floyd, or perhaps the 5G warnings were overstated, but there were no reports over the weekend anywhere in the U.S. or Canada of actual attacks on 5G towers or actual infrastructure.

There were protests in Canada, including one in Winnipeg and another in Kelowna, British Columbia, which also focused on vaccines and the calling for the end of coronavirus lockdowns. 

China Just Added Two New Nuclear Missile Submarines to Its Fleet Now Beijing has six total. by Kris Osborn

The Chinese have just added two new nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines to their Navy, bringing the total number of so-called SSBNs in the force up to six. While the U.S. operates twice as many, the growing number of Chinese nuclear-deterrence submarines massively expands the ability of Beijing to hold the continental U.S. at substantial risk. 

Nuclear-armed submarines are intended to ensure a second-strike catastrophic response in the event of a nuclear attack, essentially ensuring complete destruction of the attacking country. They quietly and secretly patrol at great depths in undisclosed locations to function as a large deterrent force against a first-strike nuclear attack. 

As recently as May of 2020, two additional “Type 094 SSBNs, had entered service,” according to a Congressional Research Service Report called “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities.”  The newest type of SSBN, according to the Navy report, is armed with 12 JL-2 nuclear-armed, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, the CRS report explains. They are also armed with Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles, wire-guided and wake-homing torpedoes and mines. Perhaps of greater concern, the Chinese have already test-fired an emerging JL-3 nuclear armed intercontinental ballistic missile with a reported range of more that 5,600 miles, according to a 2018 CSIS report. The missile is solid fueled.

China clearly appears to be expanding its nuclear-armed submarine reach on a global scale, as there have been several news reports of Chinese SSBNs seen in various hot-spots around the globe. 

The CRS report estimates that, by this year, the Chinese are operating 55 diesel-electric submarines and seven nuclear-powered submarines. 

Overall, the Defense Intelligence Agency estimates that China may operate as many as 70 submarines, according to the CRS assessment; in addition, the CRS report estimates that China will have as many as 8 SSBNs and 76 submarines overall by 2030. Most of China’s submarines are non-nuclear, and according to the CRS’ reference to the Office of Naval Intelligence, “China’s submarine force continues to grow at a low rate, though with substantially more-capable submarines replacing older units. Current expansion at submarine production yards could allow higher future production numbers.”

While there is likely little known about the exact technological make-up of the emerging Chinese Jin-class SSBN, it may not rival the emerging U.S. Columbia-class submarines. The new, now-in-development Columbia class may be the quietest undersea boat ever to exist. It uses a quiet, efficient electric-drive and a differently configured X-shaped stern. 

What is known about the Chinese Jin-class is that it will be armed with an extremely lethal, 5,600 mile range nuclear armed ballistic missile, the JL-3. For instance, a 2018 CSIS report says the Chinese have already test fired the weapon which, by any estimation, could easily hold the continental U.S. at great risk. 

Prince Harry And Meghan Markle Have Been Speaking With ‘People On All Levels’ About The Black Lives Matter Movement. By JAMIE SAMHAN

Since the rise of Black Lives Matter protests, Prince Harry and Meghan Markle have been holding meetings with prominent organizations that are part of the movement.

According to Harper Bazaar‘s Royal Editor Omid Scobie, the Duke and Duchess of Sussex have held a variety of conversations.

“This is something that is incredibly personal to Meghan, especially given everything she has experienced. And as a couple, it is, of course, very important. They are both feeling it, just like the rest of us,” a source said.

“Both Meghan and Harry have been quietly having meetings behind the scenes with people on all levels to make sure that they are educated and connected to the issues of police brutality and the Black Lives Matter movement,” they added.

In order to better understand the events happening,  “Harry and Meghan have been having private conversations with community leaders and people at every level.”

“By speaking to as many people and organizations as possible, it has been a way for them to feel connected to everything that’s going on and learn more about the issues surrounding it.”

Meghan has long been outspoken about racial inequality and as a biracial person, shared stories growing up of how her mother was treated.

“I wasn’t sure what I could say to you. I wanted to say the right thing and I was really nervous that I wouldn’t, or that it would get picked apart. And I realized the only wrong thing to say is to say nothing, because George Floyd’s life mattered and Breonna Taylor’s life mattered and Philando Castile’s life mattered and Tamir Rice’s life mattered,” Meghan said in a passionate commencement speech last week.

“And so did so many other people whose names we know and whose names we do not know.”

If China Invades Taiwan, This Is What The Fleet Could Look Like. by H I Sutton

Scenarios involving China taking military action against Taiwan have been a hot topic for decades. The most dramatic one would be a full-blown invasion involving amphibious landings. Back in the 1990s it was derided as the ‘million man swim’ because it was not believed that China had the naval means to pull it off. Some may still make that joke, but it may no longer reflect reality.

Reuters recently reported that the Chief of China’s Joint Staff, General Li Zoucheng, stated that the country could attack Taiwan to stop it becoming independent. The island has been de facto an independent country since the Communists took control of the mainland in 1948, but Beijing views it as a wayward province. The threat of force has always been there, but this latest comment is seen as an escalation of rhetoric.

The Modernized Chinese Navy

The Chinese Navy, officially known as the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), is unrecognizable compared to twenty years ago. The most visible change is that it now has two aircraft carriers, and more are being built. These are escorted by modern air-defense destroyers generally modeled on the U.S. Navy’s AEGIS warships.

This ‘blue water’ navy makes indirect approaches, from the Pacific side of Taiwan, more viable. In the past China’s ability to operate in the open ocean, away from land-based air cover, was doubted. Now the new warships, particularly the destroyers and frigates are well defended enough to encircle Taiwan. China’s fleet of submarines, the world’s largest, could also be used in this way. This could make it harder for the Taiwanese Navy to outflank the invasion fleet.

In an invasion the PLAN’s aircraft carriers would likely operate over the horizon where they are safer from counter-attack. But unlike in past wars, their position would probably be known most of the time. Open source intelligence (OSINT) such as commercial satellites provide relatively frequent coverage. Aircraft carriers can be detected even on low resolution imagery.

The amphibious ships, required to deliver the troops to the shore, have also been transformed beyond all recognition. The backbone is currently the Type-071 Yuzhao class, which is similar in concept to the U.S. Navy’s San Antonio Class. These are called Landing Platform Docks (LPDs) because they have a flooded well deck at the back. They use hovercraft and helicopters to land troops. This allows them to do it from much further offshore than traditional landing craft.

They are being joined in service by China’s first Type-075 assault carriers. These are similar to the America Class, with large flat-top aircraft decks like a regular aircraft carrier. But they also have a flooded dock for hovercraft. The Chinese ones will likely only have helicopters aboard. This might end up being the Z-20, which bears an uncanny resemblance to the Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk.

The troops involved, at least in the initial assault, would most likely be from the Army’s amphibious assault brigades. China’s Marine Corps may play a part but the main amphibious force is in the Army. These are equipped with amphibious tanks and troop carriers.

The amphibious assault brigades would establish a beachhead so that a vast fleet of landing ships could pump in fresh troops. Many of these landing ships are older and would have to come right up to the shore to unload their troops and vehicles. But regular main battle tanks would soon join the first troops. Hovercraft would also continue to play a part. There are even several gigantic Zubr Class hovercraft in service which can carry up to 500 troops at a time.

Why An Invasion Might Fail

There are many factors beyond the fleet which would influence the outcome. B.A. Friedman, a military analyst who focuses on amphibious warfare and is the author of On Tactics: A Theory of Victory in Battle, believes that a Chinese landing would face stiff opposition. “Taking Taiwan would be the one of the most difficult amphibious operations in history, if not the most difficult. Taiwan has had decades to prepare. Every landing spot is planned and the defensive plans are dialed in.”

The Taiwanese Navy, properly known as the Republic Of China Navy (ROCN), is also quite modern. But it has suffered from political isolation and struggles to purchase weapons abroad. Plans for the U.S. to build submarines for it in the 2000s came to nothing so it is left with a small and ageing submarine force. Construction of two locally developed submarines is starting but it will never match the PLAN.

And more importantly, successful military operations are more than an equipment list. Friedman agrees that China has the right tools, and enough of them, to mount a viable operation. But he questions whether they have the know-how or willpower to buy the beaches with blood. “The PLA (People’s Liberation Army) has very little combat experience, and even less amphibious warfare experience,” he notes.

Another change in the last twenty years is the information environment. As we said the Open Sources, like social media posts and satellite images will provide extensive coverage. So the Chinese Army (PLA) would have to do it while the world watches. The entire operation would be broadcast.

China may care about the optics. A violent struggle with heavy losses may send the wrong messages. And the longer it goes on, the better Taiwan’s chances of an international intervention become.

And this is before you factor in whether other countries would go to Taiwan’s aid. If the U.S. stepped in to the fight it would very likely swing the battle. The Chinese Navy is getting more potent by the minute but it is still some way behind America. The U.S. Navy has greater combat experience, and of extended operations. American submarines could hunt the Chinese aircraft carriers, particularly when they venture into the Pacific.

Having said that, China’s impressive array of new warships, and the expanding capabilities they bring, adds a lot to the credibility of the military scenario. There is little doubt that they are quickly amassing the tools of large-scale amphibious warfare. They are already overtaking many more established navies.

Yes, the Air Force Will Arms Its Jets With Hypersonic Missiles. by Kris Osborn

The Air Force is now ready to arm its force with fast-emerging hypersonic weapons, keeping pace with the service’s plan to fast-track the high-speed missiles to war. 

Live fire exercises are slated to begin shooting prototypes of the Lockheed-built AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW), according to a June 3 report in The Drive. The Air Force plans to purchase eight prototypes, the paper said. The Air Force previously conducted a captive carry test flight of the ARRW on a B-52 last year. The service has also configured a B-1B bomber with hypersonic weapons as well. 

Accommodating hypersonic weapons into a B-52 pr B1 bomb-bay brings a number of strategic implications. Not only does it massively increase the target envelope and range, but it also allows for longer mission “dwell” time over targets to sustain attacks. 

Last year, the Air Force demonstrated arming its B1-b bomber with hypersonic weapons as well, as a way to plan for the future and prepare the classic platform for a new generation of attack options. Integrating large hypersonics also merges with the Air Force’s broader intent to merge innovations more quickly from the Science and Technology realm into operational use. A new S&T Air Force strategy, released earlier last year, emphasizes greater synergy between scientifically-oriented weapons breakthroughs and “bending” metal on prototypes and systems in preparation for operational combat use.

“The S&T strategy articulates five different areas of strategic capabilities to address as an enduring military problem. One of those is speed and reach of disruption and lethality. One of the ways to address this is through hypersonics as a tool in the toolbox for operators,” Tim Sakulich, Executive Lead for Implementing the Air Force S&T Strategy, Air Force Research Lab, told TNI in an interview last year.

Although hypersonic weapons are already being prototyped and test-fired, manufacturing hypersonics brings substantial technical challenges, many weapons developers explain. They require very precise engineering to manage propulsion, temperature and target guidance, among other things. A missile traveling at five times the speed of sound brings never-before-seen dynamics to weapons production. Finding the right materials, Sakulich explained, is crucial.

“From a materials and manufacturing standpoint, we are contributing to the hypersonics capability base by looking at materials and processes that will enable designers to demonstrate these kinds of future capabilities and make them affordable. This includes looking at composites and materials for thermal management,” Sakulich, who also serves as the Director of Materials and Manufacturing, Air Force Research Lab, told TNI during the interview.

Last year, Raytheon Hypersonic weapons developer Dr. Thomas Bussing, who is the Vice President at Raytheon Missile Systems, told TNI “you can model and measure the heat in the vehicle and you can measure the material properties.” He also said, “You can’t test range (with a ground test), but you can measure performance, lift of the vehicle and thrust, attributes from which you can infer range,” referring to hypersonic weapons experiments. 

The ARRW is a “boost glide” weapon which achieves speed and range by “skipping off the upper atmosphere,” Bussing said. They can be a winged glider or take on a canonical shape, making them maneuverable and high-speed with a high “lift over drag ratio.”

Boost-glide hypersonic weapons, Bussing explained, “propel a glide vehicle to a point in space where it has a certain altitude and a certain forward speed.” The speed of descent then propels the weapon toward its target.

Interestingly, in a manner consistent with Sakulich’s comments, a Raytheon essay on hypersonics cites “thermodynamics” or “heat” management as essential to the effort. Objects, such as weapons, traveling at hypersonic speeds naturally generate a massive amount of heat which must be properly managed for the weapon to function. Specific materials designed to withstand high temperatures need to be used as well, Raytheon data states. One of the greatest challenges with hypersonics is what the Raytheon paper refers to as the “effects chain”—the command and control, networking and sensor technology sufficient to achieve the requisite guidance, targeting and precision flight.

Air-Breathing systems regularly use a scramjet engine to generate thrust—and propel the air vehicle across long distances to a target. While engineered to reach previously unattainable levels of propulsion, scramjet engine technology aligns with the technical configuration of existing high-power engine systems. This includes taking in a high-speed air flow, compressing the air and then igniting it with gas or some kind of propellant to generate thrust.”

Hong Kong tycoons with US$140 billion of fortunes at stake put their names behind China’s proposed security law for city

• A developer association said it backs China’s proposed national security bill for Hong Kong because it will guarantee stability and prosperity
• The families behind Swire Pacific, Galaxy Entertainment Group and Jardine Matheson Holdings have issued similar endorsements.

• After 12 months of political turmoil, a pandemic and the worst recession on record, Hong Kong’s richest people have emerged with their fortunes intact.

  The billionaire class of real estate developers, taipans and conglomerate founders who dominate Hong Kong’s economy are now lining up to support a controversial national security law, siding with the Chinese government despite widespread opposition from local residents and Western leaders.

  The nine richest people with companies listed in the city have endorsed the bill, either personally – as was the case with 

  Li Ka-shing

   and Michael Kadoorie – or through one of their businesses or relatives. Their fortunes are worth a combined US$140 billion.

  “Business leaders in Hong Kong have no choice if they do not relocate themselves and their businesses,” said Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London. “The passing of the decision on the national security law is a clear warning to them, and if they do not publicly support it, they know they risk being seen as opposing it.”

  

  A 70-strong delegation of tycoons, business elites and professionals meet President Xi Jinping in the Great Hall of People on 21 September 2014. The tycoons sitting in the front row include (from left to right) Bank of East Asia chairman David Li Kwok-po; New World Development chairman Henry Cheng Kar-shun; K Wah Group chairman and Galaxy Entertainment Group founder Lui Che-woo; Wharf (Holdings) chairman Peter Woo Kwong-ching; Chairman of Kerry Group, Robert Kuok Hock Nien; Henderson Land Development chairman Lee Shau-kee; Cheung Kong (Holdings) chairman Li Ka-shing; and Tung Chee-hwa, a vice-chairman of CPPCC . Photo: Handout

  A developer association representing firms including 

  Lee Shau-kee’s Henderson Land Development

   and the Kwok family’s Sun Hung Kai Properties said it backs the law because it will guarantee stability and prosperity. The families behind 

  Swire Pacific

  , Galaxy Entertainment Group and 

  Jardine Matheson Holdings

   have issued similar endorsements.

  Critics have argued that Beijing’s plan to impose the security bill by sidestepping Hong Kong’s legislature will mark the end of the “one country, two systems” principle that has underpinned the city’s status as a global financial hub.

• One of the law’s staunchest opponents is media tycoon Jimmy Lai, who has called out his fellow moguls for kowtowing to Beijing. Lai was arrested along with others earlier this year as part of a crackdown on pro-democracy figures who supported demonstrations that began last June.
• While those protests kicked off one of the most turbulent 12 months in Hong Kong’s history, the collective fortunes of the city’s richest haven’t suffered. Since the unrest started, their net worth has actually climbed 0.7 per cent, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. That compares with an 8.1 per cent slide in the benchmark Hang Seng Index over the same period.One of the law’s staunchest opponents is media tycoon Jimmy Lai, who has called out his fellow moguls for kowtowing to Beijing. Lai was arrested along with others earlier this year as part of a crackdown on pro-democracy figures who supported demonstrations that began last June.While those protests kicked off one of the most turbulent 12 months in Hong Kong’s history, the collective fortunes of the city’s richest haven’t suffered. Since the unrest started, their net worth has actually climbed 0.7 per cent, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. That compares with an 8.1 per cent slide in the benchmark Hang Seng Index over the same period.

Vietnam ratifies significant trade deal with European Union

Vietnam on Monday ratified a significant trade deal with the European Union, which is expected to boost the country’s manufacturing sector and exports, as it recovers from a dip caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Lawmakers approved the agreement as they met in the National Assembly for the first time since the pandemic began. The deal was signed in Hanoi last June and was ratified by the European Parliament in February.

When it takes effect next month, the EU will lift 85% of its tariffs on Vietnamese goods, gradually cutting the rest over the next seven years. Vietnam will lift 49% of its import duties on EU exports and phase out the rest over 10 years.

The implementation of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement "can’t come at a better time for Vietnam when it’s on the path of economic recovery after several months of closure due to COVID-19,” said economist Pham Chi Lan, former adviser to several of Vietnam’s prime ministers.

Vietnam prioritized public health and safety when the coronavirus started to peak in China. It closed the border with China in January and with the world in February while imposing a social shutdown that lasted until the end of April. The tough measures contained Vietnam's outbreak to just over 300 cases with no deaths and no local infections have been reported for almost two months.

Still, its economy has dipped because of the illness and containment measures elsewhere, and the manufacturing sector has been hit by restrictions in the movements of goods and people.

The pandemic revealed shortcomings in its manufacturing sector. While Vietnam's own factories were safe to open, they could not operate because they sourced their materials from China, particularly for major export products in textiles, footwear and electronics.

“COVID-19 has given Vietnam a hard lesson about being dependent on China,” Lan said. “It also showed other countries, including the EU, the negative impacts of relying too much on China in their product value chain and the EVFTA comes in the right time as all parties realize they need to pivot and restructure to diversify the supply chain.”

Following the trend of manufacturing shifting from China to other countries, accelerated first by the China-US trade war then COVID-19, the agreement is expected to raise Vietnam’s competitiveness in attracting investors.

Vietnam is the EU’s second-largest trading partner in Southeast Asia, with the trade turnover reaching $56 billion last year, according to the national general statistics office.

With Singapore being the only other country in Southeast Asia holding a free-trade agreement with the EU, Vietnam will have an edge regionally.

“EVFTA will add to the positive momentum drawing manufacturing to Vietnam,” said Michael Sieburg, a partner of YCP Solidiance, a corporate strategy consulting firm focusing on Asia.

“Manufacturers looking to locate in the region and seeking a more competitive access to EU markets will be more inclined to shift manufacturing to Vietnam as a result of EVFTA,” Sieburg said.

Foreign direct investment in Vietnam reached over $38 billion in 2019, marking a 10-year high. With about two-thirds of it going into manufacturing, the agreement should help sustain the trend, Sieburg said.

Lawmakers also ratified a second pact that protects investors. They had been negotiated since 2012 and give EU companies equal treatment with domestic bidders in competing for public contracts in Vietnam. They also commit Vietnam to standards for sustainable development, including improving its human rights record, protecting labor rights and upholding its pledges to deal with climate change under the Paris accord.

More than 30 years since carrying out economic reforms to integrate with the global economy, the country with a population of 95 million, is emerging to be one of the world’s next factories.

“Vietnam has to attract (investment) from countries with high technologies and upholding good corporate governance, gradually replacing the partnership with countries having outdated standards. The free trade agreement with EU will help Vietnam raise its skills and standard. It is a great opportunity for Vietnam to excel,” Lan said.

Signs of infighting surface among Chinese leadership Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s ‘stall economy’ proposal met with criticism from within CCP

The two most powerful figures in the Chinese leadership appear at odds with each other over a stimulus approach for the economic recovery, pointing to a rift in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (李克強) on May 28 proposed the notion of a "stall economy" as a way to revive the battered state of things and spur spending amid the coronavirus fallout. The policy would signal the return of street vendors, who were largely cracked down on prior to the pandemic.

Less than a week later, however, CCP mouthpieces and a number of government media outlets have mounted a campaign against that approach over its potential to blemish the image of cities.

In a commentary on Saturday (June 6), Beijing Daily lashed out at vendors for being the source of fake products, noise pollution, and traffic woes, and claimed their return would only compromise efforts to improve hygiene and promote a civilized society. China Central Television (CCTV) also carried an opinion piece on its website Sunday (June 7) slamming major cities for jumping on the bandwagon in pursuit of the stall economy model.

Street vendors are not an elixir to economic woes, and blindly adopting the method will see years of "delicate management" of urban development go down the drain, the article proclaimed.

The backlash from the party's own mouthpieces indicates the opposing views of Li Keqiang and Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平), sparking talk of conflict brewing within the CCP. Xi was allegedly riled by Li's remark at the annual National People's Congress last month that China still has 600 million people living on a monthly income of 1,000 yuan (US$141), a reminder of the country's ongoing struggle to lift its people out of poverty.

Huawei’s founder declares ‘war’ on West

Meng Wanzhou, daughter of Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, is wearing a GPS monitor on her ankle while under house arrest in Vancouver

BLOOMBERG

Huawei’s founder urged workers to crush rivals and “blaze a trail of blood” in the Chinese telecoms giant’s battle for supremacy.

Ren Zhengfei ordered staff at Huawei’s research and development centre in Hangzhou, eastern China, to learn from Google’s unrelenting march. “Surge forward, killing as you go, to blaze us a trail of blood,” he said a month after the arrest of his daughter in Canada in 2018, according to a transcript seen by The Wall Street Journal.

Russia and Turkey just escalated a war while you weren’t watching

Russia and Turkey just escalated their two-front war over which country will be the big dog in the Middle East. The two rivals have been at this game for a couple of centuries, but it just got a lot more serious this week when Russia introduced jet fighters into the Libyan civil war.

Coronavirus may have shut down Texas beauty parlors and Louisiana bars, stopped international travel, and cleared streets across the globe, but hasn’t brought war to a halt. Rather, Russia and Turkey are in the midst of a multifront proxy escalation in both Libya and Syria.

Russians have long memories. They recall when Imperial Russia fought Ottoman Turkey in the bloody Crimean War. Ottoman Muslim forces fought Christian Tsarist troops on the Black Sea peninsula, where more fighters fell to the Asiatic cholera epidemic than on the battlefield.

Turkey won. Russia today, however, once again occupies Crimea. The 19th-century Crimean War was the crucible in which were forged Russo-Turkish antagonisms and their 21st-century imperial dreams.

Both Russia and Turkey want to take advantage of a dysfunctional and shrinking European Union, a solipsistic America and a China focused on consolidating power in its own neighborhood first. The global pandemic provides an opening for two ambitious nations to both stand their ground and stake new claims.

Syria and Libya may seem like booby prizes, but what happens in Damascus and Tripoli matters. It certainly matters to the victims of indiscriminate killings. People have deeply suffered in Syria, under the brutal Assad regimes and, since 2011, when a Syrian version of the Arab Awakening was quickly quashed. Images of the total destruction of Raqqa and Aleppo look like post-World War II Berlin.

Russians targeted and ran air sorties hitting hospitals, schools, and any infrastructure providing solace and survival. Bashar Assad’s Russian-supported regime sought total annihilation and rebel capitulation. Most of the nation was brought to its knees by Putin and Assad’s one-two punch.

The only hope for normalcy and peace was in Syria’s northeast—a predominantly Kurdish region—where until 2018, well-protected American forces had a minimal presence and maximal effect. It was a relatively safe American military investment for an active role in the region’s future. The U.S. presence guaranteed the safety and security of the region’s toughest anti-ISIS fighters: the Kurds.

What blew-up this accommodation was not a Russian bomb or a Syrian troop incursion. What upset this American humanitarian effort and the fragile balance of power was a single, unexpected and capitulating White House phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The gist of the conversation? America was pulling out; Turkey could move in.

America’s departure was Turkey’s invitation to run amok. The cost? Syrian lives, regional stability, American credibility, allies’ trust and a seriously messed-up neighborhood with no immediate prospect for lasting peace. Russia and Turkey continue their violent geopolitical game in Syria, testing each other’s will to grab what they can and dig in where they must

Moscow and Ankara, fighting for influence, oil and a bigger Mediterranean footprint, have now also squared off in North Africa. Libya is the new theater for both soldiers of fortune and modern imperial forces. Russia’s introduction of advanced fighter planes indicates that things started to go south for Moscow’s ally, opposition leader General Khalifa Haftar.

Two major fighting forces act as Turkish and Russian proxies. One, the U.N.-backed Libyan Government of National Accord, is partly underwritten and fully supported by Turkey and is fighting for dear life. The other is Haftar’s Russian-tied insurgent group with a base of operations in Benghazi. Haftar claims popular legitimacy, seeks international recognition and, until recently, was rapidly closing in on Libya’s capital, Tripoli. The place is a hot mess.

Libyan lawlessness and violence make the country ungovernable. That makes it the perfect place for drug runners, migrant smugglers, arms dealers, oil thieves and marauding men terrorizing innocent citizens.

Meanwhile, Russia and Turkey pump up their respective Libyan teams’ sides and pretend to broker ceasefires. Lulls in battle allow the warring factions to regroup and jockey for international advantage and sympathy in this endless on-again, off-again war.

Vladimir Putin longs for the days of the Soviet Union. Erdoğan pines for the Ottoman Empire’s lost glory. Both leaders are facing political challenges at home as the coronavirus crisis runs rampant throughout their countries. During these unsettling times at home, there is no better distraction for faltering leaders than a foreign war against a traditional foe. Turkey and Russia are just warming up.

Wartime presidents capitalize on national pride and military adventure. The losers of these ill-considered and vain wars invariably are civilians. Last weekend reminded us that Memorial Days come and go, but memories of hardship, horror and war inevitably fade—even as global conflicts flare anew.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views this blog