Communist Cuba Fears Another Trump Presidency: Cuban Diplomat Trump would keep in place “people with an anti-Cuban trajectory” within “important positions inside the government, in the State Department structures or the National Security Council.” by Jason Hopkins

The Trump campaign flaunted comments from communist Cuba’s top diplomat in Washington, D.C., expressing alarm over the possibility of a re-election victory for the president. 

“China isn’t the only communist regime that would like to see Joe Biden in the White House,” the Trump campaign said in a press release Tuesday. “This weekend, the Cuban government announced its endorsement of Joe Biden, expressing hope that President Trump will lose in November.”

The press release referred to comments from Carlos Fernández de Cossío, the Cuban foreign ministry’s general director for the United States, during an interview to Agence France Presse, a French-based news outlet.

Fernández de Cossío said it would be a “very negative scenario” if Trump were to be re-elected in November.

“If the Republicans win … it’s a very negative scenario,” he said during the interview. “It would mean at least a continuation of the policy of aggression against our country.”

The Cuban diplomat went on to say that a second Trump term would be worse than the first because it’d keep in place “people with an anti-Cuban trajectory” within “important positions inside the government, in the State Department structures or the National Security Council.”

Fernández de Cossío’s comments came after Trump rolled back many of the overtures the Obama administration made to Cuba’s communist regime. The island had been subjected to an embargo by the U.S. since 1962, but former President Barack Obama eased tensions during his tenure, such as re-opening an embassy in Havana and lowering restrictions on imported products.

Since assuming office, Trump ramped sanctions back up against the Cuban government. In a 2017 memorandum, the Republican president imposed new travel and commerce restrictions against Cuba, with the aim of keeping Americans from conducting business with entities tied to Havana’s military and security services. Those restrictions had been relaxed during the Obama administration.

Former Vice President Joe Biden, who is now the Democratic Party’s presumptive 2020 presidential nominee, has pledged to return to Obama-era relations with the Castro regime and reverse the sanctions put in place by Trump.

Following Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsement of Biden, the two men announced a joint task force, meaning the self-identified democratic socialist would be helping to lead Biden’s policy agenda. Sanders took heavy flak from Democrats and other critics of former Cuban leader Fidel Castro’s regime when his 1985 comments praising the “massive literacy program” in Cuba resurfaced.

The Trump campaign on Tuesday attacked Biden for not yet publicly disavowing “the Cuban government’s support for his candidacy.”

Trump Urges House Republicans to Reject Surveillance Law Update The President is unhappy with the way it was used against his campaign in 2016. by Chuck Ross

President Donald Trump on Tuesday urged House Republicans to vote against reauthorization of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, the surveillance tool that the FBI used to wiretap former Trump campaign aide Carter Page.

“I hope all Republican House Members vote NO on FISA until such time as our Country is able to determine how and why the greatest political, criminal, and subversive scandal in USA history took place!” Trump wrote on Twitter.

Trump’s advice could potentially throw a kink in plans to reauthorize the surveillance law.

The House passed FISA reauthorization on March 11 on a bipartisan vote — 278 to 136 — with 126 Republicans supporting the measure. Attorney General William Barr voiced support for the House version, and urged its passage in the Senate.

The Senate passed its own version of a reauthorization bill on May 14. Because of differences in language in the bills, the House will vote on the Senate’s measure sometime this week before it can be sent to Trump’s desk.

Trump’s tweet comes after a series of revelations about the FBI’s investigation of the Trump campaign, which involved surveillance both through FISA and the use of confidential sources.

The FBI during the Obama administration also reportedly relied on the FISA process to snoop on a phone call in late-December 2016 between then-Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak and incoming national security adviser Michael Flynn.

FBI agents failed to disclose exculpatory information that undermined the theory that Page was working as an agent of Russia. They also failed to tell the FISA Court about problems with the Steele dossier, which the FBI cited extensively to support the claim of probable cause that Page was a spy.

The Justice Department deemed two of the four FISA orders against Page to be invalid because of the FBI errors.

The FBI’s errors were not limited to the Page investigation, according to the IG. An audit of 29 FISA applications found errors in all of them, the IG said in a report released March 31.

Pompeo Revokes Waivers to Convert Iranian Nuclear Plants to Civilian Use It’s another nail in the coffin of the nuclear deal. by Matthew Petti

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo revoked permission for foreign companies to help convert Iranian nuclear facilities to peaceful use in another escalation of the nuclear standoff between the United States and Iran.

Russian, Chinese, and European companies are currently helping modify nuclear facilities to bring them into compliance with a 2015 deal between Iran and six other world powers—and have been protected from U.S. sanctions by temporary waivers up until now.

The waivers have been a long-time bugbear of Iran hawks who believe that the 2015 deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was too lax and would like to see the Iranian nuclear program ended altogether.

U.S. economic sanctions will now apply to companies working to downgrade the Arak reactor, import nuclear fuel for a research reactor in Tehran, and remove Iran’s spent nuclear fuel, which could be reprocessed into plutonium to make a weapon.

The Trump administration also placed sanctions on Majid Agha’i and Amjad Sazgar, two managers at the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.

“Iran’s nuclear personnel need to make a choice – work for Iranian proliferation organizations and risk being sanctioned or put their skills to work for the Iranian people in pursuits outside of the proliferation realm,” Pompeo said in a statement.

However, work will still be able to continue at a reactor at Bushehr for at least sixty days “to ensure safety of operations.”

The Trump administration had renewed the waivers in January and March. Pompeo reportedly opposed the waiver extension in March, but was overruled by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies sent out expert quotes on the Trump administration’s rationale by email just before 4 pm.

“Some will say ending JCPOA nuclear waivers gives Iran an excuse to threaten the world with more nuclear extortion. But the truth is nothing gives Iran an excuse to threaten nuclear extortion,” wrote Richard Goldberg, who had simultaneously served as an official in the National Security Council and a senior advisor for FDD from 2019 to 2020. “Iran threatens the world with its nuclear capabilities because it can – because the Iran Deal let Iran keep those capabilities intact.”

Pompeo finally went public about twenty minutes later.

“The Iranian regime has continued its nuclear brinkmanship by expanding proliferation sensitive activities,” he said in a statement. “These escalatory actions are unacceptable and I cannot justify renewing the waiver for these JCPOA-related activities as a result.”

The United States and Iran have been locked in a nuclear standoff since the spring of 2018, when U.S. president Donald Trump broke from the 2015 deal and imposed economic sanctions on Iran.

Iran has retaliated by ramping up its nuclear activities, and declared in January that there were no longer “operational” limits on its uranium enrichment, but has continued to allow inspectors to visit its sites, and insisted that other elements of the deal are intact.

The Trump administration has used Iranian violations to push the United Nations to snap back sanctions on Iran, a move that Russia, China, and the European Union consider a non-starter.

“Now is the time to increase the pressure on Iran by snapping back UN sanctions,” Goldberg wrote. “A UN snapback would prevent the arms embargo and other key restrictions on Iran from ending—and it would restore the international standard of zero enrichment.”

Should America Worry About China's Shiny H-20 New Bomber? While there is much still to be known about the H-20, there are many reasons why U.S. weapons developers are likely to take it very seriously. by Kris Osborn

China appears to be preparing to unveil its new H-20 stealth bomber, an emerging platform expected to massively extend China’s attack range and present a rival platform to the U.S. B-2 and emerging B-21.

Quoting “military sources,” a report from The New Zealand Herald said the new and still somewhat mysterious H-20 bomber could make its first public appearance at this year’s Zhuhai Airshow in November—depending upon how things progress with the Coronavirus Pandemic. 

The H-20 could, of course depending upon its technological configuration, bring a new level of threat to the United States, for a number of reasons.

For instance, the New Zealand report says the new supersonic stealth bomber could “double” China’s strike range. Interestingly, although much is still not known about the platform, its existence was cited in the Pentagon’s 2018 and 2019 annual “China Military Power Report.”  The 2019 report specifies that the new H-20 will likely have a range of “at least 8,500km” and “employ both conventional and nuclear weaponry.” 

The report cites 2016 public comments from People’s Liberation Army Air Force Commander General Ma Xiaotian announcing the development of the H-20, and saying the weapon could emerge some time in the next decades. Well, sure enough, the next decade is here and early renderings appear to parallel some of Xiaotian’s comments about Chinese intentions for the bomber. According to the Pentagon’s China report, he said the H-20 will “employ 5th generation technologies.”

An ability to engineer and deliver fifth-generation systems into the bomber may remain to be seen to some extent, as much is still unknown, yet the Chinese have already engineered several potentially fifth-generation aircraft with the J-20 and J-31. At the very least, the exterior does appear to be stealthy; it looks like it has an embedded engine, blended wing body, absence of vertical structures and engine air ducts woven into the frame underneath the fuselage. The B-2, by contrast, has air ducts emerging from the top of the fuselage, however many design features unequivocally seem to resemble a B-2. The Pentagon report observes that “a possible H-20 prototype depicted a flying wing airframe akin to the B-2 bomber and X-47B stealth unmanned combat aerial vehicle.”

A reported range of 8,500 kilometers appears slightly less than a B-2 bomber’s range of more than 6,700 miles, Pentagon reports have raised concerns that the Chinese “may also be developing a refuelable bomber that could “reach initial operating capability before the long-range bomber.” 

Perhaps of even greater concern, according to the Pentagon assessment, is that such a refueler could “expand long-range offensive bomber capability beyond the second island chain.” A refueler could also substantially change the equation and enable it to rival the mission scope of a B-2 which, as many know, successfully completed forty-four-hour missions from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri to Diego Garcia, a small island off the Indian coast during Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan.

As for its ability to compete with a B-2 or B-21, there may simply be too many unknowns. However, a few things do come to mind. The B-21 airframe, for instance, appears to have little or almost no external exhaust pipes, raising the question as to whether it incorporates new thermal management or heat dispersion technologies. A key goal, when it comes to designing stealth bomber airframes, is to work toward having it mirror or align with the surrounding temperature of the atmosphere so as to be less detectable to thermal sensors. Also, while much of the B-21’s details remain “black” for understandable reasons, senior Air Force leaders have said the platform contains a new generation of stealth technologies and can “hold any target at risk in the world at any time.”

This indicates that there may be a high measure of confidence that the new B-21 will be able to succeed against the most advanced current and anticipated future air defense systems. An ability to elude both surveillance and engagement radar in a modern technical environment would be quite an accomplishment, as advanced Russian air defenses such as the S-400 and S-500 contain a new generation of technologies. Not only do they use digital networking to connect radar nodes, rely upon faster computer processing and track aircraft on a wider sphere of frequencies, but they also claim to be able to detect “stealth” to a large degree. This may remain as of yet unproven, as it is something touted by the Russian media, yet it has inspired U.S. weapons developers so seek newer paradigms for stealth technology. Also, the sophistication of these advanced air defenses may be one reason why, at least when it comes to stealth fighters, senior Air Force weapons developers describe stealth as merely “one arrow in a quiver” of methods to evade and destroy enemy air defenses. Nonetheless, there is no available evidence to suggest a new B-21 would have any difficulty against the most advanced air defenses; debates along these lines are likely to persist for years, at least until much more is known about the B-21. Air Force officials say the B-21 will be virtually “undetectable,” something which may very well be true.

Finally, it may not even be clear that China’s new H-20 bomber could even fully rival the U.S, B-2. While the B-2 may be thought of as a somewhat antiquated 1980s built platform, years of Air Force upgrades have vastly changed the performance parameters of the airplane. The B-2 is now being engineered with a so-called Defensive Management System sensor designed to find locations of enemy air defenses—and thus fly around them. The B-2 is also being outfitted with a new one-thousand-fold faster computer processor and being configured to integrate new weapons platforms such as the modern, upgraded B-61 Mod12 nuclear bomb. Finally much like what is reported about the H-20, both the B-2 and B-21 are engineered to carry and fire long-range nuclear and conventional cruise missiles, such as the Air Force’s emerging Long-Range Standoff Weapon.

Overall, the current B-2, which is now being engineered to fly alongside the B-21 until sufficient numbers of B-21s are available, is nothing like the aircraft which initially emerged in the late 80s. Along these lines, both the B-21 and B-2 are built with the often discussed “open architecture” strategy intended to lay down the technical apparatus sufficient to sustain perpetual upgradeability.

Ultimately, while there is much still to be known about the H-20, there are many reasons why U.S. weapons developers are likely to take it very seriously. For instance, if the H-20 can extend beyond the first island chain, as the New Zealand report maintains, then it can not only hold the Philippines, Japan and areas of the South China Sea at risk, but also threaten Hawaii, Australia and even parts of the continental United States.

Beijing Heralds Success Over Coronavirus as Victory for Chinese Marxism Differentiation between China and the rest of the world is likely to become more prominent in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rhetoric as the nation’s success is attributed to its socialist political system. by Ruairidh Brown

In the run-up to China’s 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) on May 22, the chairman of its Standing Committee, Li Zhanshu, said how important it was that the session was being held in the middle of the global coronavirus pandemic. Li remarked the session was being held at a time when “overseas COVID-19 epidemic situations remain grim and complex”, while in China “major strategic achievements have been made”. 

Such differentiation between China and the rest of the world is likely to become more prominent in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rhetoric as the nation’s success is attributed to its socialist political system. The English version of the People’s Daily commented in its coverage of the NPC that “foreigners” will be looking to China’s socialist system for enlightenment and guidance as they emerge from the shadow of the pandemic.

The CCP is now proclaiming its success over COVID-19 as a victory for President Xi Jinping’s brand of Marxism.

Early in the “war” against coronavirus, it was predicted that the CCP would be one of the most high-profile casualties. But rumours of the CCP’s demise were premature. As China deployed an increasingly vast and sophisticated surveillance system, the pandemic has accelerated the party’s authority and control, not caused it to crumble.

While many countries declared war on COVID-19, China stressed it was a “People’s War”. Such an analogy recalls the rhetoric of Mao Zedong, who called for a People’s War to liberate China from the Imperial Japanese in 1938.

By talking about the pandemic in the same language, Xi identified the magnitude of the threat posed by COVID-19. But he also signified that the war would be waged according to the spirit, ideology and beliefs of the CCP and in an effort infused with Chinese socialist characteristics. Victory in this war will be a vindication of Xi’s Marxist strategy.

Socialist ethics

As a researcher of the uses of contemporary Marxism in bolstering ideas of citizen obligation and state legitimacy, I’m looking at how China channels revolutionary analogies. Seventy years after the founding of the People’s Republic, Xi has been notable in his efforts to re-establish Marxism at the heart of Chinese politics.

One of the key rationales Xi gives for the strengthening of Marxism is that the ideology can restore China’s social cohesion. This is required to address the ills of hedonism, extravagance and corruption which have infected China as an inevitable result of “opening up” to the West.

As China recovers, its success in containing the virus is being put down to the devotion and solidarity of the people. Such claims are not unfounded: a WHO-China joint mission report particularly praised the Chinese people’s “solidarity” and “collective action” during the pandemic. Such praise for solidarity will doubtless vindicate Xi’s efforts in creating a more cohesive and collectively minded populace.

China’s way versus the West

Xi consistently asserts that Chinese leadership is guided by Marxism’s “scientific truth”. An ambiguous term, Xi often explains this approach as one that uses Marxist theory to identify the best way to solve practical challenges. As the CCP deploys a mix of advanced technology and traditional socialist organisational models to tackle COVID-19, this will doubtless exemplify such practical use of Marxism.

Successfully tackling the outbreak is vital for the CCP’s domestic legitimacy. Since the early years of the People’s Republic of China, the promise of eradicating disease and improving the health of all has been at the centre of communist propaganda. Such focus has created an inextricable link between health and Chinese politics. Given this link, the “war” against COVID-19 was of vital importance for the CCP’s legitimacy.

Nonetheless, the global nature of the pandemic means that the success China has will also be judged in relation to how other countries, especially Western liberal states, handle the crisis.

Chinese state media claimed China’s “low death rate” relative to other hard-hit countries was due to the superiority of socialist China’s institutional framework. Such assertions have been made in the context of an ideological war with the West, stressing the benefits of Chinese socialism in relation to the weaknesses of Western capitalism.

In the Hong Kong edition of the China Daily, this political message was explicit: COVID-19 should make the people of Hong Kong, “who have long been under the influence of Western ideology”, recognise the benefits of the alternative socialist system.

In Marxist philosophy, progress comes through conflict. Chinese officials have evoked such belief, quoting Friedrich Engels in particular to claim that Comrade Xi’s “new era” will emerge stronger from its struggle with COVID-19. The CCP is already in the process of drafting a book – to be published in multiple languages – showcasing the key role of the CCP and China’s socialist system in defeating the virus.

Rather than causing communist China to crumble, the virus will likely serve as a catalyst in Xi’s bid to present his brand of Marxism as a challenge to the global capitalist system.

A Post-COVID-19 Revival Could Kickstart Africa’s Free Trade Area African states can realize their economic goals if they adopt a “developmental regionalism” approach to trade integration. by Faizel Ismail

The African Continental Free Trade Area was launched two years ago at an African Union (AU) summit in Kigali. It was scheduled to be implemented from 1 July 2020. But this has been pushed out until 2021 because of the impact of COVID-19 and the need for leaders to focus on saving lives.

Studies by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and others state that the free trade area has the potential to increase growth, raise welfare and stimulate industrial development on the continent. But there are concerns. Some countries, particularly smaller and more vulnerable states, could be hurt. For example, they could suffer revenue losses and other negative effects from premature liberalisation.

The impact of COVID-19 will only worsen these structural weaknesses. The Economic Commission for Africa has reported that between 300,000 and 3.3 million people could lose their lives if appropriate measures are not taken. There are several reasons for this level of high risk. These include the fact that 56% of urban dwellings are in overcrowded slums, 71% of Africa’s workforce is informally employed and cannot work from home and 40% of children on the continent are undernourished.

Africa is also more vulnerable to the impact of COVID-19 because it is highly dependent on imports for its medicinal and pharmaceutical products and on commodity exports. The latter include oil, which has suffered a severe collapse in price.

Other contributing factors are high public debt due to higher interest rate payments than Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, a weak fiscal tax base, and the negative impact on Africa’s currencies due to huge stimulus measures taken by OECD countries.

The COVID-19 crisis has brought these weaknesses into sharp relief. But it also provides an opportunity for African countries to address them. For example, they could accelerate intra-regional trade by focusing on the products of greatest need during the health crisis. Countries could also start building regional value chains to advance industrialisation, improve infrastructure and strengthen good governance and ethical leadership.

These are all vital to guiding African countries through the current crisis.

These goals can be achieved if African states adopt a “developmental regionalism” approach to trade integration. This would include fair trade, building regional value chains, cross-border investment in infrastructure and strengthening democratic governance.

Fair trade

A number of conditions need to be met for a free trade area to succeed.

Firstly, African states vary widely in size and economic development. As a result some may warrant special attention and specific treatment. In particular, among Africa’s 55 states 34 are classified by the United Nations as least developed countries. These are low income countries that have severe structural problems impeding their development.

Building trade agreements in favour of small and less developed economies will contribute to fairer outcomes of the free trade deal.

Secondly, African governments should include their stakeholders – businesses (both big and small), trade unions and civil society organisations – in the national consultation process. This will require effective institutions that enable the fullest participation.

Additional steps countries should take to cope with the fallout from COVID-19:

• Reduce tariffs on vital pharmaceutical products (such as ventilators), personal protective equipment and food products;Stimulate intra-regional trade by prioritising these products for an immediate or early phase down in the free trade area.

• Building regional value chains

• African countries are increasingly connected to the global economy, but tend to operate at the lowest rung of the ladder. They are mainly supplying raw materials and other low-value manufactured outputs.

  Cooperation is needed between Africa’s emerging entrepreneurs and industries to improve their competitiveness in global markets. This would have a number of positive outcomes including:triggering industrialisation, which will transform economies

• • helping African countries obtain a fairer share of the value derived from African commodities and labour, and

  • • improving the lives of people on the continent.

    The current crisis creates an opportunity for African countries to build value chains on medical equipment, pharmaceuticals and personal protective equipment.

    The clothing and textile sector could also be restructured to meet the needs of the health sector while taking advantage of the breakdown in supply chains from China and Europe.

    As more countries lock down their economies and apply movement controls, agricultural and processed food supply chains are disrupted. This creates opportunities to build regional supply chains and partner with retailers.

  • There are also opportunities to build infrastructure to support the health response: hospitals, water and sanitation, schools, low-cost housing and alternative energy.

    African countries can also benefit from the growing interest in environmental tourism.

    Cross-border infrastructure investment

    Since most African countries are less developed, and many are small, intra-regional trade will require them to cooperate to improve their infrastructure. This includes physical ports, roads and railways as well as customs procedures, port efficiency and reduction of roadblocks.

    Progress is already being made. Examples include the Mombasa-Nairobi Corridor; the Addis to Djibouti road, rail and port connection; and the Abidjan-Lagos Corridor, which handles more than two-thirds of West African trade.

    Increased investment in these types of cross-border infrastructure projects will benefit regional integration.

    Democracy and governance

    Most African states have started accepting multi-party systems of governance. Many have also embraced a culture of constitutionalism, rule of law and human rights.

    Democratic governance supported by active citizenship will create an environment of transparency and predictability that encourages domestic and foreign investment. Both are vital for growth and industrialisation. The process is also essential for the sustainability of regional economic integration and democracy in Africa.

    Countries are becoming better at fulfilling their democratic obligations. For example, 40 African countries, including the Seychelles and Zimbabwe, voluntarily joined the African Peer Review Mechanism. The mechanism is a remarkable achievement that the free trade area agreement must build on.

    The way forward

    The free trade area could become a landmark in Africa’s journey towards peace, prosperity and integration. The COVID-19 pandemic, notwithstanding its devastating impact on the health and economies of Africa, could be an opportunity to advance the free trade area in a more developmental, inclusive and mutually beneficial way for African countries.

Why the iPhone 11 Is Now the World's Most Popular Smartphone Absolutely crushing it. by Stephen Silver

This time last year, an Apple iPhone was the top smartphone in the world, with a Samsung Galaxy model in second place.

That’s still the case now, except that different phones have taken those spots.

According to Omdia’s Smartphone Model Market Tracker Q1’20, which has been cited by various media outlets, the iPhone 11 was the top smartphone in the world in the first quarter, with 19.5 million units sold.

That phone, which was introduced last fall, was #1 by a factor of more than three, ahead of Samsung’s Galaxy A51 (6.8 million). A pair of Xiaomi phones, the Redmi Note 8 and Redmi Note 8 Pro, were third and fourth, with the iPhone XR fifth.

That last phone was the #1 smartphone in the world in the same quarter a year earlier, when it was followed by Samsung’s Galaxy J4 Plus, with the iPhone 8 third.

In the first quarter of 2020, all four current iPhone models cracked the top ten, while in the 2019 version, the iPhone XS and XS Max were not in the top ten.

According to the research, the iPhone 11 succeeded in balancing affordable pricing with features, with its dual-camera setup representing huge appeal. And these sales numbers were achieved despite the coronavirus pandemic.

“For more than five years—even amid shifting conditions in the wireless market and the global economy—one thing has remained consistent in the smartphone business: Apple has taken either the first or second rank in Omdia’s global model shipment ranking,” said Jusy Hong, director of smartphone research at Omdia.

 “Apple’s success is the result of its strategy to offer relatively few models. This has allowed the company to focus its efforts on a small number of products that appeal to a broad selection of consumers and sell in extremely high volumes.”

The numbers also found that Samsung’s Galaxy S20+ was the top 5G phone globally in the first quarter, with 3.5 million units, followed by a pair of Huawei models, the Mate 30 5G and Mate 30 Pro 5G. Two more Samsung phones, the Galaxy S20 5G and Galaxy S20 Ultra 5G, were fourth and fifth.

A different survey this month, from Strategy Analytics, had found that Samsung dominated sales of 5G smartphones worldwide in the first quarter, with 8.3 million sold.