New evidence at the Bohai shipyard in China points to the construction of the next generation of nuclear submarines for the Chinese Navy (known as the PLAN). While many have argued that the new Type 095 and 096 subs will be built there, it is only now that the infrastructure is largely ready. The new submarines will be important if the PLAN wishes to patrol the open Pacific, or routinely venture into the Indian Ocean. Analysis of commercial imagery shows a new launch barge has recently been completed at the site. From an intelligence standpoint, this is an important indicator.
In an unclassified analysis, the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) says it expects China’s submarine fleet to grow from around 66 boats today to 76 by 2030. This will include 6 more nuclear-powered attack submarines, which is what the Bohai yard at Huludao builds. Others, such as Captain Captain James E. Fanell who was Director of Intelligence and Information Operations for the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet, put their estimates higher. Fanell recently projected around 110 submarines by 2030.
So the work at the new Huludao facility will play a key part in the expansion. The ONI points to this fact, stating, “Current expansion at submarine production yards could allow higher future production numbers.”
So it is not a great leap to say that the new construction halls and dry dock at Huludao will be used to build new nuclear-powered attack submarines. These are expected to be the all-new Type-095 Tang Class which may be China’s answer to the Virginia Class. I estimate that at least nine will need to be built to reach the 2030 projection. This is because three of the existing boats are reaching the end of their operational lives. The Type-091 Han class were China’s first generation nuclear submarines and entered service in the 1970s. Three of the class, laid down in the 1980s, are still in service. The rest are the newer Type-093 Shang class which first entered service in 2006.
Work on the Huludao expansion started in 2014 with large new construction halls built on reclaimed land. The hall has three construction bays, each large enough to house two submarines. The buildings themselves were complete by 2017, but it is only recently that they have been connected to the dry dock where the submarines will be launched. A new launch barge has been put in place to transfer the submarines from dry land into the water. So China now has the facilities lined up to start launching Type-095 submarines.
According to Captain Chris Carlson, a former senior U.S. intelligence officer and technical intelligence expert, the driver for the new construction facility may not be the Type-095. Instead he sees the next generation ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), the Type-096, as benefiting more. This is because he expects it to be larger and heavier than the current Type-094 Jin class SSBN. “The original construction hall is probably too small to house both new submarines, but this assumes the submarines’ beam (width) is the constraining issue – the Type 096's expected greater length is a definite problem. The original launch barge also likely has inadequate lifting capacity to get a much larger Type 096 submarine into the water.”
Carlson believes that the new submarines will be wider than the current generation. “Despite all the blog blustering, the current Type 093 attack submarine is a noisy boat. And the 093A, while better, isn't the equivalent of a 688 (Los Angeles Class)”. This is largely because of size. Carlson continues, “The pressure hull diameter of a Type-093 is just too small for a full entablature raft along with compound isolation to house the entire propulsion plant and the necessary auxiliaries. This is the same constraint the Russian’s experienced with the Victor III Class that has a less effective ring raft.” In layperson’s terms, the pressure hull needs to be bigger to provide space to insulate the submarine’s steel hull from the vibrations of the machinery.
If high levels of stealth are desired, then the new submarines will likely have a similar hull diameter to the Russian Improved Akula class. According to ONI documents, the Improved Akula-I is reputed to be quieter than a U.S. Navy Improved Los Angeles (688I) Class submarines. The new Chinese boats will also have a special outer hull treatment, known as an anechoic coating, which improves stealth.
Of course the new submarines are expected to have the latest in Chinese sonar and weapons. But the biggest capability leap might be a larger crew. This will enable much longer patrols because, despite ever-improving automation, crew fatigue remains a major constraint for at-sea endurance. So these bigger boats are seen as a step in the journey for a PLAN with global ambitions.
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