Hong Kong’s economic future will be safer under a Joe Biden presidency by Richard Harris

• Calm minds on both sides know China and the US need each other because they are more economically linked than militarily opposed, unlike the Cold War
• Hong Kong’s economic future remains in the hands of the superpowers, with a Biden presidency less likely to cause unwelcome fallout.

• British prime minister Harold Wilson said in 1964 that “a week is a long time in politics”. And in 1886, politician Joseph Chamberlain said: “In politics, there is no use in looking beyond the next fortnight.” In 2020, I shall try to look over the next five months to see how Hong Kong might fare with the next US president. 

  Current US president, Donald Trump, who pre-coronavirus looked unbeatable, seems to be imploding. He is a man who can take pressure, but the burdens of office will wear anyone down – especially a man with the capriciousness to upset the apple cart soon after having gutted the fruit shop. The sight of him looking exhausted after his unsuccessful political 

  rally in Oklahoma

   was telling.

  Two weeks ago, I would have said Trump would easily beat Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, but a fortnight is a long time in politics. Biden is an uninspiring, long-term politico who has shown few leadership skills. This election is Trump’s to lose.

  A scrapping Trump is a great campaigner, a victorious Trump vainglorious, but a losing Trump with his back to the wall is likely to intensify a stream of name-calling, backbiting, spiteful and divisive tweets which could turn voters against him.
  The explosive kiss-and-tell book by John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, went viral over the weekend as soon as a judge granted permission for it to be published, 

  against the wishes

   of the White House.

  It turns out White House meetings debating serious geopolitical issues, such as Iraq or Syria, are often derailed by Trump ranting about unrelated topics.

• 
  
• Bolton reports several impeachable offences, like discussing domestic political and legal interference in US affairs with foreign leaders. He claims 

  Trump buttered up

   President Xi Jinping about detaining Uygurs on terrorist offences because criticism or sanctions could have interfered with trade negotiations.

  Bolton served Ronald Reagan and two Bushes as well as Trump, and he appears genuinely shocked at the lack of administration within the administration.

  He points out the chilling fact that if 

  Trump is re-elected

  , he will not have the constraint of even trying to be popular and would run the country where his maverick, unpredictable and unreliable first thoughts would take him.

• Trump will disobey all the rules of politics in election season in terms of being a friend to everybody – he has offended many and is actively opposed by more. That is not a good place to be when you want to win the middle ground.

  The 

  enthusiasm is fading

   from Trump rallies. He is under attack from new quarters, and his inept handling of the coronavirus has exposed a businessman-politician, not a statesman.

  The US election will be critical to Hong Kong’s economy. Calm minds on both sides know China and the United States need each other because they are more economically linked than militarily opposed – unlike the Cold War.

• Will America choose a man who thrives on conflict and unpredictability, or will the man who has no visible original thoughts lead the country into a difficult decade? I’m guessing the American electorate will say it's time 

  for a change

  .

  Under a Biden presidency, there is likely to be a 

  thawing of relations

   as both sides try to make up and maybe resuscitate the phase one Sino-American trade deal. That is at least nine months away, so investors will have to wait.

  However, Trump’s legacy is that he broke the spell that bound Barack Obama from criticising China on trade matters. He has inspired a wide suspicion of China across the aisle, so trade talks may be more cordial but no easier.

  White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said on Monday that the phase one trade deal with China was “over”. The markets responded badly, with the Hong Kong and S&P 500 indices dipping immediately. Navarro soon retracted or clarified the statement and Trump 

  tweeted to confirm

  , “The China Trade Deal is fully intact”.

• Markets quickly recovered, but the volatility is a clear indicator of how they still fear the narrative on trade. It is still foremost in the minds of investors.

  Bolton’s revelation of the alleged conversation Trump had with Xi underlines how important the trade deal was to Trump. He is not going to prematurely write it off, even if the economic shutdowns have ironically favoured China’s balance of trade. 

  Trade is critical to Hong Kong’s economy, which is why 

  our special status

   with the US is so important. The early furore about the national security law has died down, and the initial limits to its use so far announced might stabilise the flow of negative news and stay the hand of the US in ending Hong Kong’s status.

  Our economic future remains in the hands of the superpowers, with a Biden presidency less likely to cause unwelcome fallout. On our part, Hong Kong needs to stay out of the news. Ill-judged arrests and trials ordered from Government House are an extra economic risk that we don’t need.

Revealed: The Pentagon’s Pacific Plans for the B-21 Stealth Bomber by Kris Osborn

The Pentagon plans to deploy its emerging B-21 stealth bomber in the Pacific as part of a decided effort to ensure technical superiority, sustain deterrence, and, if needed, hold potential adversaries at risk. 

The plan, articulated by Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs David Helvey, incorporates the integration of surveillance assets, submarines and what the Pentagon envisions as a new generation of stealth technology contained in the B-21.

“We're making investments to ensure that we maintain operational readiness and strengthen the conventional capabilities that we have that are our enduring advantage such as submarines, the new B-21 Stealth bomber, the P-8 aircraft,” Helvey told reporters June 18, according to a Pentagon transcript. 

Helvey discussed the anticipated operation of the B-21 in the context of increased U.S.-allied training operations, coordinated strategic policies and a specific focus upon the “deterrence of any actors that would look to undermine or threaten our shared interests,” as he put it. 

Operating a B-21 in the Pacific, conducting patrols such as those now increasingly being performed by B-2s, B-52s and B1-bs in the Pacific theater, would present a new series of interwoven complexities for potential adversaries. 

Given that the B-21 is largely a “black” program, very few details are known about its technical characteristics, however, developers have emphasized that it incorporates a new generation of stealth technology, bringing an ability to hold “any target, anywhere in the world . . . at risk.” 

Slated to be operational in just the next few years, the B-21 could not come at a better time, given the rapid advances known to be occurring with Chinese surface-to-air defenses. While Russian S-400s and emerging S-500s have long been believed to be among the most advanced and concerning, there is now growing consensus that China’s technological progress in this area is also quickly gaining ground. 

The most cutting edge air defenses increasingly draw upon faster computer processing, digital networking between otherwise separate “nodes,” and multi-frequency radar technologies. A 2017 assessment in Deagle.com of the HQ-9 specifically cites that the Chinese air defenses are in part based upon the U.S. Patriot and Russian S-300 Systems. The newer HQ-9B is cited to be able to hit ranges out to three hundred kilometers. 

“The HQ-9 has a track-via-missile terminal guidance system and proximity fuze taken from the Patriot and ‘cold-launch’ and aerodynamics from tube-launched S-300 missiles,” the Deagle.com report states. 

Despite the technological progress of air defenses, retired Lt. Gen. David Deptula, Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, maintains an “imperative for stealth,” explaining that the most advanced stealth bombers will remain very difficult to hit. 

“Even if a radar can detect, it now has to track, and when it transfers that data to engage it will have to shoot a missile using much smaller radar than that used for detection. Also, fusing of the interceptor weapon can be affected by low observability technology,” Deptula previously told the National Interest. “Bi-static radar can help detect low observable aircraft. However, to intercept a stealth aircraft requires the transfer of detection from a large acquisition radar to a much smaller interceptor radar either on an aircraft or a missile that can track—or maintain continuous “lock-on” of the low observable aircraft

The B-21 image released by the USAF depicts a design that does not use vertical flight control surfaces like tails. Without vertical surfaces to reflect radar from side aspects, the new bomber will have an RCS (Radar Cross Section) that reduces returns not only from the front and rear but also from the sides, making detection from any angle a challenge, the Mitchell Institute writes.

On the topic of RCS, an interesting essay called “Radar and Laser Cross-Section Engineering,” from the Aerospace Research Central, cites the emergence of new coating technologies, including “radar-absorbing materials and artificial metamaterials.” (Text written by David Jenn, an author from the Naval Postgraduate School).

Newer methods of infrared or thermal signature reduction are connected to engine and exhaust placement. Internally configured engines, coupled with exhaust pipes on the top of an aircraft can massively lower the heat emissions from an aircraft, such as the structure of the current B-2.

All of these emerging technical factors continue to inform a growing consensus regarding future war threats—that the B-21 may quite possibly be the only platform that will be able to penetrate certain enemy weapons and advanced air defenses for decades to come. 

China targeting non-English-speaking journalists in new push for influence – study

China is attempting to use journalists from non-English speaking countries to promote its policies beyond its borders in a concerted new push for influence, a report by the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) has found.

A survey of journalist unions across 58 countries found that through study tours, control of media infrastructure, and the provision of pro-Beijing content, China is “running an extensive and sophisticated long-term outreach campaign … [in] a strategic, long-term effort to reshape the global news landscape with a China-friendly global narrative”.

The IFJ report, The China Story: reshaping the world’s media, argues Beijing is also seeking to build control over messaging infrastructure – effectively the channels by which countries receive news – through foreign media acquisitions and large-scale telecommunications ventures. The report found the decade-long campaign “seems to be escalating”.

The survey, carried out in September and October 2019, asked journalism unions from 58 countries on whether they have received overtures from Beijing. This included questions about sponsored trips, content-sharing agreements and approaches to sign bilateral agreements with Chinese bodies.

Journalists from 29 of the nations surveyed had been on trips to China, with almost two-thirds of respondents judging that China has a visible presence in their national media. One-third of the journalism unions surveyed had been approached by Chinese entities seeking joint agreements.

The research found Beijing increasingly relies upon non-Chinese journalists, especially from developing countries, to amplify its own talking points.

“Beijing’s strategy whereby state-approved propaganda is diffused into existing systems is known as ‘borrowing a boat to reach the ocean’,” the report said.

One example has been a recent attempt by Beijing to push back against western narratives of human rights abuses in the political indoctrination camps in the far western province of Xinjiang, where Beijing is holding up to one million members of the Uighur minority, according to United Nations estimates.

Beijing has taken several groups of journalists from Muslim countries to the camps to win international support for its hardline strategy of combating what it says is religious extremism.

China is not the only country that seeks to influence foreign journalists. Many others, including the US and Israel, run government-sponsored journalistic study tours of their countries, seeking to promote their positions and global points of view. And global arms of state-funded media organisations or national broadcasters – such as Voice of America and the BBC World Service – are seen as effective instruments of ‘soft power’ and influence.

Report author Louisa Lim told the Guardian China’s efforts were often more comprehensive and were specifically targeted to each country, in particular, towards small and developing nations.

“It’s true other countries have done this every effectively. One difference, I would say, is the way journalists who go on these tours are being used domestically, by, for instance, going on tours of Xinjiang, that is used try and show international support for China’s policies.

“Also journalists are sometimes asked to sign agreements before they leave, and told not to write critical stories. There is also an element of monitoring, with officials, translators always present.”

At one roundtable of nine Myanmar journalists conducted for the IFJ research, every single journalist had been offered sponsored trips to China at least twice, and had accepted every single offer. One journalist had been to China nine times.

“The message is not don’t go on these tours, but know what they are. If you have an opportunity to meet senior officials, use them to hold to account.”

The Guardian has sought comment from the Chinese embassy in Australia, sending a detailed list of questions to the embassy. It has not received a response.

Media control and influence has become a critical diplomatic controversy between, in particular, the US and China. This week, the US state department announced that Chinese state-run media organisations China Central Television, China News Service, the People’s Daily, and the Global Times would be designated in the US as foreign missions.

In response, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said the US decision was “proof of blatant political oppression by the US on Chinese media”.

“We strongly urge the US to reject the cold war mindset and ideological bias, and to immediately stop and redress such wrongdoing that hurts others and itself, ” he said.

China has also been refusing to renew the visas of US journalists working in the country.

The IFJ research found Beijing has prioritised journalists from countries involved in its massive infrastructural project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

In the Philippines a number of journalists received training in China after the President’s Communications Operation Office signed a memorandum of understanding with China’s National Radio and Television Administration.

One Filipino journalist – who asked to remain anonymous – noted the subsequent impact on their news output. “The way they write their stories now, they reflect the way Xinhua – or the state media in China – is writing their stories. It’s normally propaganda.”

Stealthy 'Son Of Ares' Mystery Jet Appears With Odd Markings And NASA F-15 Escort

Last week The War Zone reported on intriguing tests involving Scaled Composites' high-flying Proteus test platform and the company's two Model 401 'Son Of Ares' stealthy jet demonstrators, which still largely remain a mystery. We can now say that these missions have not only continued, they have expanded to include new aircraft types. 

Make sure to read our previous piece on these peculiar operations linked here in order to get up to speed and for full context. 

This week, the trio of highly experimental aircraft were airborne once again over and near the Navy's massive Naval Air Weapons Station China Lake range complex in the Mojave Desert. Proteus and one of the Model 401s sortied from Scaled Composite's home base at Mojave Air and Space Port, while the other Model 401 flew out of China Lake, just like last time. But this time around they were joined by another player, a NASA F-15D Eagle carrying a large pod.

This week, the trio of highly experimental aircraft were airborne once again over and near the Navy's massive Naval Air Weapons Station China Lake range complex in the Mojave Desert. Proteus and one of the Model 401s sortied from Scaled Composite's home base at Mojave Air and Space Port, while the other Model 401 flew out of China Lake, just like last time. But this time around they were joined by another player, a NASA F-15D Eagle carrying a large pod

The appearance of a NASA F-15 for the tests is interesting. Nearby Armstrong Flight Research Center supports development and flight test work that have both civilian and military applications. Considering the exotic podded payloads Proteus often lugs around, which range between NASA scientific instruments to advanced military sensors, its involvement isn't too puzzling. Our photo contributor Christopher McGreevy found himself under the flight path of the F-15D and the Model 401 and captured a couple of photos of the formation: 

According to local observers and plane trackers, the Model 401s flew together at times and separate at others and a KC-10 was present to provide fuel for the NASA F-15D as the tests wore on. Proteus was also close by at a similar altitude, around 25,000 feet, as the Model 401s, flying its large racetrack-like patterns oftentimes to the west of the action 

Hans Friedel was near Mojave as this was going on and snapped some photos of one of the Model 401s and Proteus as they recovered at Mojave Air and Space Port. This is our first good look at N401XP in its configuration for these tests. Note that the aircraft wears a new overall gray coating and there are large discolored diamond-like shapes below the cockpit and on its lower tail section. It is unclear what exactly these patches are for, but it seems like the Model 401s may be participating in a test that at least has something to do with their signatures, which can include radar, electronic, infrared, and visual.

We also get a look at the other side of the pod Proteus is carrying, which appears to have some sort of electro-optical system installed. It's not clear if there is also a radar or some emitter situated in between, as well. If so, this would certainly help slew the optical systems on to their targets. With two apertures seen, it may make sense why two model 401s are participating in the test. The configuration would also point to why the planes are flying largely on the same plane as the cameras, if they are cameras, as they would have a limited ability to pan and tilt in this flush-mounted configuration. Still, we don't know for sure what the payload is or its utility for certain, so take all this with a grain of salt.

The odd surface treatment on the Model 401 may also point to some sort of a coating test, maybe one that works to reduce the infrared signature of the aircraft, which is becoming more and more important as infrared search and track (IRST) systems are increasing in their capabilities and pose a real threat to stealthy aircraft. In addition, a significant portion of air-to-air missile capabilities also relies on imaging infrared homing. But reductions in infrared signature alone may not be the extent of the tests. The Pentagon has long been interested in visual signature reduction. You can read all about the long developmental past of aerial 'cloaking' technologies and where such a capability may be at today in this past feature of ours. It's also worth noting that past technology demonstrator aircraft, such as Boeing's Bird Of Prey, existed partially to test visual signature reduction measures. 

Once again, these are just some thoughts based on the information we have at hand. Those areas on the Model 401's skin could be conformal antennas or even calibration and tracking marks to aid an optical tracking system that is being tested. As such, the Model 401s could be providing lower observable targets for challenging that system, nothing more. We just don't know. 

There has been much speculation that these aircraft could be manned or optionally manned demonstrators to prove unmanned technologies, such as the loyal wingman concept of operations and more. Like many other Scaled Composites other designs, their actual reason for being may be multi-fold or will shift over time.

Hanz also pointed out to us that the Model 401 sounds remarkably strange when landing and he even connected it to a video of an RQ-170 Sentinel landing at Creech Air Force Base some time ago that we have discussed here on The War Zone in the past. Check out the two videos below:

It is not clear if the similarities are due to a common powerplant or the odd inlet designs on both aircraft, or even a combination of both, but it is interesting none the less. 

So, that is where it sits now. There has been no action with the Model 401s today as far as we can tell, although Raytheon's 'Voodoo 1' 727 sensor test jet has been flying over the same area that Proteus was yesterday. It isn't clear if any of this is tied to the ongoing testing in question. Regardless, it seems clear that whatever program is underway involving these little stealthy jets it is a complex one that requires a large variety of assets and multiple test flights. 

With that in mind, we probably will be seeing a lot more of the Model 401s and their friends in the days to come. 

How the Air Force Is Using B1-B and B-52 Bombers During Chinese-Indian Tensions by Kris Osborn

U.S. Air Force Bomber Task Forces are sustaining patrols and combat readiness in numerous areas throughout the Indo-Pacific theater to maintain war-readiness and pursue deterrence missions amid heightened tensions with China and America and growing India-China tensions. 

B1-Bs and B-52s have been conducting bi-lateral war game maneuvers with Japanese Air Defense Forces, according to a statement from Air Force Global Strike Command. 

Beginning June 14, three B-52 bombers from Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana, began launching patrols from Alaska. This most recent move follows another recent deployment wherein, B-1B Lancers from the 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, 7th Bomb Wing, Dyess Air Force Base, Texas, deployed to Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, in support of Pacific Air Forces’ Bomber Task Force missions. 

While the Air Force statement did not specifically mention China, or refer to the emerging India-China conflict, the comments did specify the “Indo-Pacific” region and cite the “uncertain security environment.” 

“BTF (Bomber Task Force) missions are routine demonstrations of the credibility of our forces to address a diverse and uncertain security environment, and particularly AFGSC’s ability to deliver lethal, long-range strike options across the globe anytime, anywhere,” General Timothy Ray, Commander, Air Force Global Strike Command, said in a written statement. 

Although the Bomber Task Force movements were described as routine, it takes little imagination to recognize that such maneuvers are likely to take on added significance and urgency in light of growing violence and tension along the Indian-Chinese border. 

Interestingly, the most recent deployment specifically launches B-52, combat-tested aircraft which, due to upgrades, are now almost nothing like the classic Vietnam-era bomber. While the basic airframes have withstood the test of time, the B-52 continues to receive high-tech adjustments to ensure the platform remains effective in modern, higher-threat environments. 

No longer used primarily as a “carpet bombing” platform, the bomber can drop advanced precision bombs, network intelligence information in-flight due to advanced digital data links and increase mission dwell time and effectiveness with a newly engineered Internal Weapons Bay Upgrade. Moreover, the 1760 Internal Weapons Bay Upgrade will allow the B-52 to internally carry up to eight of the newest “J-Series” bombs in addition to carrying six on pylons under each wing. The digital data links enable B-52 pilots to receive new intel while “en-route” due to new connectivity with aircraft and ground-commanders. 

Pilots and B-52 modernization experts have said that having an increased internal weapons bay capability affords an opportunity to increase fuel-efficiency by removing bombs from beneath the wings and reducing drag. The first increment of IWBU integrates an internal weapons bay ability to fire a laser-guided JDAM, officials said.

Developers have added that a second increment, that will be completed by 2022, will integrate more modern or cutting-edge weapons such as the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM Extended Range) and a technology called Miniature Air Launched Decoy (MALD). A MALD-J “jammer” variant, which will also be integrated into the B-52, can be used to jam enemy radar technologies as well.

A more effectively armed B-52 enables the aircraft to linger for longer periods of time in deterrence missions and allow more time for pilots to identify multiple targets on a single mission. 

“It is about a 66 percent increase in carriage capability for the B-52, which is huge. You can imagine the increased number of targets you can reach, and you can strike the same number of targets with significantly less sorties,” an Air Force official said in an interview on the IWBU several years ago. 

Also having an increased internal weapons bay capability affords an opportunity to increase fuel-efficiency by removing bombs from beneath the wings and reducing drag.

Chinese Navy Steps Closer To New Generation Of Nuclear Submarines by H i Sutton

It seems likely that the Chinese Navy's next generation submarines, the Type-095 and Type-96, will ... [+]

 H I SUTTON

New evidence at the Bohai shipyard in China points to the construction of the next generation of nuclear submarines for the Chinese Navy (known as the PLAN). While many have argued that the new Type 095 and 096 subs will be built there, it is only now that the infrastructure is largely ready. The new submarines will be important if the PLAN wishes to patrol the open Pacific, or routinely venture into the Indian Ocean. Analysis of commercial imagery shows a new launch barge has recently been completed at the site. From an intelligence standpoint, this is an important indicator.

In an unclassified analysis, the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) says it expects China’s submarine fleet to grow from around 66 boats today to 76 by 2030. This will include 6 more nuclear-powered attack submarines, which is what the Bohai yard at Huludao builds. Others, such as Captain Captain James E. Fanell who was Director of Intelligence and Information Operations for the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet, put their estimates higher. Fanell recently projected around 110 submarines by 2030.

So the work at the new Huludao facility will play a key part in the expansion. The ONI points to this fact, stating, “Current expansion at submarine production yards could allow higher future production numbers.”

So it is not a great leap to say that the new construction halls and dry dock at Huludao will be used to build new nuclear-powered attack submarines. These are expected to be the all-new Type-095 Tang Class which may be China’s answer to the Virginia Class. I estimate that at least nine will need to be built to reach the 2030 projection. This is because three of the existing boats are reaching the end of their operational lives. The Type-091 Han class were China’s first generation nuclear submarines and entered service in the 1970s. Three of the class, laid down in the 1980s, are still in service. The rest are the newer Type-093 Shang class which first entered service in 2006.

Work on the Huludao expansion started in 2014 with large new construction halls built on reclaimed land. The hall has three construction bays, each large enough to house two submarines. The buildings themselves were complete by 2017, but it is only recently that they have been connected to the dry dock where the submarines will be launched. A new launch barge has been put in place to transfer the submarines from dry land into the water. So China now has the facilities lined up to start launching Type-095 submarines.

According to Captain Chris Carlson, a former senior U.S. intelligence officer and technical intelligence expert, the driver for the new construction facility may not be the Type-095. Instead he sees the next generation ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), the Type-096, as benefiting more. This is because he expects it to be larger and heavier than the current Type-094 Jin class SSBN. “The original construction hall is probably too small to house both new submarines, but this assumes the submarines’ beam (width) is the constraining issue – the Type 096's expected greater length is a definite problem. The original launch barge also likely has inadequate lifting capacity to get a much larger Type 096 submarine into the water.”

Carlson believes that the new submarines will be wider than the current generation. “Despite all the blog blustering, the current Type 093 attack submarine is a noisy boat. And the 093A, while better, isn't the equivalent of a 688 (Los Angeles Class)”. This is largely because of size. Carlson continues, “The pressure hull diameter of a Type-093 is just too small for a full entablature raft along with compound isolation to house the entire propulsion plant and the necessary auxiliaries. This is the same constraint the Russian’s experienced with the Victor III Class that has a less effective ring raft.” In layperson’s terms, the pressure hull needs to be bigger to provide space to insulate the submarine’s steel hull from the vibrations of the machinery.

If high levels of stealth are desired, then the new submarines will likely have a similar hull diameter to the Russian Improved Akula class. According to ONI documents, the Improved Akula-I is reputed to be quieter than a U.S. Navy Improved Los Angeles (688I) Class submarines. The new Chinese boats will also have a special outer hull treatment, known as an anechoic coating, which improves stealth.

Of course the new submarines are expected to have the latest in Chinese sonar and weapons. But the biggest capability leap might be a larger crew. This will enable much longer patrols because, despite ever-improving automation, crew fatigue remains a major constraint for at-sea endurance. So these bigger boats are seen as a step in the journey for a PLAN with global ambitions.